The reporter learned from a number of sources that the CPI in April will be lower than the 8.3% in March, which may be around 8.1%.
On April 30, the last trading day before the May Day holiday, driven by the lower-than-expected CPI inflation in April and the increase in new funds, the Shanghai Composite Index rose strongly by 4.82% to 3,693.
Retardation of inflationary pressure
"Compared to the high inflation in February and March, April will be lower than March, and inflationary pressures will ease," said Chen Jijun, a macro analyst at CITIC Securities.
The biggest reason for pulling down the CPI increase in April was the decline in the prices of agricultural products. In the last two weeks of April, despite the high price of food prices, the prices of vegetables dropped sharply due to adequate supply. Some varieties even fell by 50%.
Zhang Jie, Chief Analyst of Hujie Investment, even predicted that “CPI will fall to 7.9% in April. Inflation will fall in the next few months after peaking at 8.7% in February.â€
However, despite inflationary pressures being eased, there are still three pressures on inflation in April: First, international crude oil prices remain high, the PPI continues to rise at a high level, and even surpass the CPI; second, core inflation slowly rises, showing an upward trend; It is the price of food, especially rice, that has just begun to rise.
A number of agencies predict that following the drop in actual investment in the first quarter, investment and exports will continue to fall in April, while consumption will increase steadily. “The economy is falling in the first quarter; but the trend and degree of decline need to be determined. We should continue to observe the fall in aggregate demand, which will provide a basis for loosening the policy,†said Professor Liu Yuanchun, vice president of the School of Finance at Renmin University of China.
For domestic inflation, Liu Yuanchun believes that the current inflation is still structural, mainly driven by rising food prices. "Whether or not it is acknowledging, everyone is now more tolerant of inflation. As long as inflation is stable, we should not solve inflation by suppressing economic growth."
The new "double defense" is ready
Although government documents still insist on “double prevention†of preventing economic growth from being over-rapid to overheating and preventing prices from being structurally escalated to marked inflation, it is the primary task of the current macro-control, but more and more Economists believe that the current economic overheating pressure has been initially alleviated. Whether it should continue to “prevent overheating†needs careful consideration.
According to the monitoring results announced by the National Bureau of Statistics on April 29, China’s macroeconomic early warning index for the first quarter was 113.3, which was in a steady state “green light zone†and was in an “overall stable†state. In the months after September 2007, the early warning index has been in the hot yellow zone.
At the same time, Zhu Hongren, deputy director of the Economic Operation Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated at the press conference in the first quarter of this year that the current problem of excessive investment growth, excessive money supply, and excessive foreign trade surplus has eased, and structural adjustment has made new progress. . At present, China's economic operation is developing in the expected direction of macro-control. "We must closely follow the new changes in the economic situation, grasp the balance between promoting economic growth and curbing inflation, and maintain stable and rapid economic development," Zhu Hong stressed.
"Obviously, the tone of the policy is changing, from the 'old double defense' to 'new double defense'. The new double defense is to prevent inflation, but also to prevent the economic downturn." Liu Yuanchun analysis. “In a large economic country with a large population and an accelerated industrialization phase, high economic growth is not terrible. After a terrible economic recession, it will cause social instability and a large increase in unemployment. This will intensify the contradictions.†Liu Yuanchun Emphasize.
Chen Jijun said that there has been no suspense in the export decline in 2008, and it is now time to relax internal demand and make up for falling export demand.
Interest rate suspension
In view of the changes in the economic situation, a number of agencies predict that the rate hike in May is less likely.
Morgan Stanley believes that the US recession has caused the global economic downturn. This will help the Chinese economy to cool down without requiring the government to take drastic austerity measures. Domo maintains its judgment that "we will not raise interest rates in 2008."
"We predict that raising the interest rate in the second quarter is almost impossible, because the total contraction policy may trigger economic fluctuations. Monetary policy will focus on deposit reserve ratio and open market operations to tighten liquidity." Say.
Zhang Hao believes that the current economic environment is more complex and does not need to continue to increase regulation. “Anti-inflation and economic growth are indeed a pair of contradictions. If we continue to fully regulate and control, the economy will face downside risks; if we liberalize investment, then the PPI (producer price index) will continue to push up, and will be conducted to the CPI in the future.â€
Zhang Jian suggested that the first step is to vigorously solve the problem of urban social security owed through finance, and at the same time establish a rural social security system, and use the good time for a large increase in fiscal revenue to resolve people's worries, ease inflationary pressures, and lay the foundation for starting consumption; Effectively promote economic restructuring and structural adjustment, start the strategic transformation of science and technology, re-examine the development path of heavy chemical industry, reduce the pressure of resources and environmental pollution.
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