Some people even made such predictions. In 2009, GM will apply for bankruptcy protection at the end of April; crude oil prices will fluctuate around US$ 30 per barrel for most of 2009. However, no matter how the future of the global automotive industry changes, this 2008 is enough to make everyone miserable.
In 2008, the four words "ups and downs" were used to describe the global automotive industry. The financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis has already affected the global automotive industry. The US auto sales fell for many months. The US’s “big three†(GM, Ford and Chrysler) intimidated the White House and declared that it would not go bankrupt if it provided financial assistance; Daimler announced that it had stopped production and Volvo repeatedly laid off staff. Due to the declining demand, the European auto industry had to Recognizing that the European market is beginning to weaken, the Korean and Japanese auto industries have followed, and even the booming BRIC auto market has begun to "chill". Next, in emerging car markets such as Thailand, car sales began to decline by a double-digit percentage.
The financial crisis has stumped the global automotive industry
Summing up in 2008, the global financial industry is bound to be mentioned. The rapid deterioration of the global commercial vehicle industry has long been a clue. Since the beginning of 2007, the implementation of the US EPA 2007 emission standards has given the U.S. commercial vehicle community a heavy blow. The subsequent rise in raw material prices and exchange rates have made it difficult for European parts suppliers to develop. By September 2008, the outbreak of the U.S. financial crisis only gave the reason for the rapid decline of the global commercial vehicle industry. The aftereffects of this impact are the subsequent layoffs, suspension, and bankruptcy.
In the United States, the first major manufacturer of coaches in North America, Coach Industries, filed for bankruptcy protection with the Delaware Bankruptcy Court for debt problems. Next, Daimler Truck North America Co., Ltd. publicly stated that it gave up its truck brand Sterling and closed Sterling's two plants in North America. Due to the impact of the U.S. financial crisis, the three major brands of Daimler Trucks North America: Stirling, West Star, and Freightliner have low growth prospects. However, the core markets of these three brands are all in the United States. For this reason, Daimler Le had to reluctantly cut his love and cut off Sterling, who had the worst development.
According to European media, in 2008, the European automotive industry entered the largest state of emergency in 60 years, even comparable to the impact of the 1973 oil crisis. It is said that starting from Christmas and New Year, the newly established automobile factories in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and even Poland and the Czech Republic will all be suspended for a period of up to one month. In Germany, the Man Group plans to lay off more than 4,000 temporary workers at its Munich plant; in Sweden, about 1,400 employees of the Volvo Group lost their jobs due to the financial crisis; in the Czech Republic, Tatra, the largest truck manufacturer in the country, has Shorten production time and expect to respond to financial turmoil through production cuts. According to analysis data, after 10 years of rapid economic development, Russia should have become Europe’s largest auto market this year. However, the financial crisis has forced banks to reduce low-rent retail loans, which has caused rapid sales declines in the past three months. As a result, Russia’s dream of becoming the largest car market in Europe has shattered.
The booming Latin American auto industry was also dragged into a quagmire. In recent years, the Latin American region is one of the emerging markets that multinational car manufacturers are competing to invest in. However, with the proliferation of the financial crisis, the negative impacts have emerged in important auto markets such as Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina. It is understood that starting in December 2008, Brazilian automobile manufacturers have announced a collective holiday, and from the current statistical data, 75,000 automotive manufacturers will collectively take leave before the end of the year, accounting for 60% of the total employment in the industry. . At the same time, Brazilian auto parts companies have also been implicated.
Rejuvenating the automotive industry, stumping governments
If we want to find a cure for the global commercial vehicle industry, the "pharmacy primer" should be the support of all governments.
The United States White House finally shaken under the "three big" rounds of U.S. bombardment. To stabilize the operating conditions of General Motors and Chrysler, the U.S. government announced that it will provide two companies with $17.4 billion in government loans. The U.S. Department of the Treasury also announced the details of the auto manufacturer's bailout plan. It is understood that the rescue plan details when to issue loans and limit the remuneration of company executives and even ordinary employees.
After the U.S. government introduced a rescue plan, Canadian Federal Chancellor Harper and Ontario Governor McGuinty also announced that they will provide 4 billion Canadian dollars (about 3.2 billion U.S. dollars) to car manufacturers that are in trouble and operating in Canada. Emergency loan. Since 1/7 to 1/6 of German jobs are related to the automotive industry, the revitalization of the automobile industry has become particularly urgent. German Federal Minister of Economy Gross announced recently that it would amend the motor vehicle tax to help the German auto industry out of its predicament. The Brazilian government announced on December 11th, 2008 that it temporarily reduced the tax on industrial products for the automotive industry in order to withstand the economic crisis. The United Kingdom has performed more cautiously. It is understood that the British automobile industry temporary bailout plan, which is being drafted, will impose "very harsh" conditions. This is to some extent to avoid setting too generous precedents for other rescue operations. According to local British media reports, the UK Treasury Department wants to ensure that taxpayer loans or credit guarantee conditions for auto companies are at least as strict as those of commercial lending institutions.
According to the latest news, the Indian government is planning to launch a second stimulus plan for the automotive and steel industries (in the first economic stimulus plan announced in December, the Indian government promised to spend an additional 200 billion Indian rupees in FY08. (About $4.2 billion) to slow the impact of the global financial crisis on India. The final plan will be announced in the near future.
It is more difficult to enter emerging markets
As the traditional markets such as Europe and the United States begin to decline, emerging markets are an attractive big cake for global commercial vehicle companies. It is believed that in the market development reports of many multinational commercial vehicle companies, the wordings of emerging markets such as Brazil, India, Russia, and Vietnam are indispensable.
In 2008, the Delhi government in India stated that it will issue a notice for the update of heavy trucks. If the notification can be implemented smoothly, in the next two years, about 200,000 heavy trucks in India's capital, Delhi, with service life of more than 10 years will be eliminated, resulting in a huge demand gap; with some sports events held in South Africa in 2009 and 2010 Thousands of bus gaps will become the focus of commercial vehicle companies. Expanding sales networks, CKD, and building factories in these markets is the main way for them to enter.
However, it was becoming more and more difficult to enter these markets in 2008. On the one hand, the economic crisis has spread across the globe; on the other hand, these emerging markets have also gradually realized that they are overly dependent on “imported goodsâ€. The end result is that local commercial vehicle companies The weaker. Therefore, these emerging markets have raised their barriers to entry. In the recent report of a senior multinational commercial vehicle company, the description of these markets may have turned into an "increase in the difficulty of entry."
In August 2008, Vladimir Al-Qaddkov, the governor of Russia’s Samara State, stated that Russia refused to join the WTO and stated that this approach would be beneficial to the development of the domestic automobile industry. This statement also opened the prelude to Russia’s rejection of his national car. First of all, in 2008, Russia implemented a more stringent inspection certificate system, which not only restricted the import of models, but also increased the cost of Chinese companies exporting cars to Russia (it is reported that the average cost of obtaining a certificate of conformity is up to 150,000 US dollars). Secondly, in November, Russia increased the import tariff on finished car bodies to 15%, and stipulated that the import tax per car body must not be less than 5,000 euros, which would make it unprofitable for foreign car manufacturers to perform semi-finished assembly (SKD) in Russia. . In addition, since July 1, 2008, Russia has raised the threshold for the certification of vehicles exported from countries that are not members of the Geneva Accord, with a total of 55 certification programs. These policies have made it harder for China’s commercial vehicle exports to Russia.
In 2008, the Vietnamese government repeatedly raised the tax rate on imported automobiles and parts, and light trucks and commercial vehicle parts were all affected. Since March 2008, the Ministry of Finance of Vietnam has adjusted the import tax rates on cars and auto parts for three times. As of June 2008, Vietnam has increased the import tariff of vehicles from the original 60% to 83%; the import tax rate for auto parts has also increased from 5% to 10% to 15% to 29%. At the same time, Vietnam's 2010 development strategy for the automotive industry places more emphasis on the status of local automobiles. It is reported that by 2010, the planned production capacity of passenger cars in Vietnam will reach 36,000, accounting for 80% of the market; the production of heavy trucks will reach 127,000 units, and 80% of the market will be occupied.
M&A becomes a "killer"
When a multinational commercial vehicle company expands its global market, choosing local strong local manufacturers may be the “killer†for successful entry into the local market. Based on this, it created many mergers and acquisitions and joint ventures in 2008.
In the process of mergers and acquisitions, "snakes" often occur. The snake refers to the disadvantaged party who wins out in all directions; the elephant refers to the party whose power is large but is swallowed up. In 2008, if Porsche is a snake, then the public is like; if the Continental Group is like, Schaeffler is a snake.
Before talking about the acquisition of Porsche and Volkswagen, first mention Man and Scania. The acquisition between Mann and Scania in Germany has been started since 2006, and the competition is more than two years. Finally, in March 2008, Mann’s largest shareholder, Volkswagen and Scania’s two major shareholders, Silver Ruida and Wallenberg Fund, reached an agreement to purchase their own Scania shares and successfully controlled Scania. However, when the public announced in a fair manner that it would retain authentic Scania, it suffered itself. In September 2008, Porsche successfully took 35.14% of the public's shares into the hands of the public and Volkswagen became its subsidiary.
This is one aspect. On the other hand, in December 2008, German Man decided to acquire the truck and passenger car business unit in Resende, Brazil from the public. The company, worth EUR 1.175 billion, will be transferred on January 1, 2009, and the management agencies of MAN and Volkswagen AG have approved the acquisition. In this acquisition, it is impossible to identify who is the real winner.
The good show of the mainland group being "swamped" is even more worthy of rethinking by companies that are eager to make big acquisitions. Before Schaeffler took part in this acquisition, he was only a low-key and unfamiliar company in the industry. As the fifth largest auto parts company in the world, Continental Group's 2008 sales are expected to reach 26.4 billion euros, but it was acquired by the Schaeffler Group, which had annual sales of only 8.9 billion euros in 2007. At the end of 2007, the Continental Group was celebrating the successful acquisition of VDO, a subsidiary of Siemens, but it was precisely because of this blind acquisition that the Continental Group had no return. Continental originally used its tires business as its main business, but in order to focus on the development of high-tech industries, VDO was acquired and spent 11.4 billion euros, making the Group’s debt insurmountable. Coupled with the high prices of raw materials and the global economic slowdown, the mainland is no longer able to face the Schaeffler Group's acquisition. In August 2008, Continental Automotive CEO Wei Ningmou suddenly left mainland China.
Joint ventures with local companies or mergers and acquisitions of local companies is the main means for multinational commercial vehicle companies to enter the local market. The Mainland event will warn these car companies, especially in the context of the global economic downturn, it should avoid the impulse caused by mergers and acquisitions. The capital chain of the company is broken so as not to repeat the mistake of "snaking the elephant."
Severe standards make it difficult for regulators to make decisions
In 2008, in the formulation of emission standards, the most industry-led incidents were the actions of European regulators to actively relax their emission standards. EU standards and the United States California emission standards, the United States Environmental Protection Agency standards, and said the world's most stringent three major emissions system. In the formulation of emission standards, China's emission standards have followed Europe, and Europe's "leader" attitude has never been lowered.
From the EU-Euro IV, Euro V emission standards for commercial vehicles, the EU has not fallen behind in the formulation of emission standards. In 2007, Euro VI emission standards were put on the agenda. But this time, European commercial vehicle manufacturers and related organizations do not buy it. The first statement is the European Parliament’s Environmental Committee. The European Parliament’s Environment Committee voted unanimously that the current requirements for emissions of nitrogen oxides from Euro VI emission standards for commercial vehicles (trucks and buses) are relatively stringent. Therefore, they demanded that the limits for nitrogen oxides in this standard be lowered. Provisions. It is understood that if the proposed amendments are adopted, the NOx emission requirements in the Euro VI emission standards will increase from the previous 0.4 g/kWh to 0.5 g/kWh. With support from the European Parliament’s Environmental Committee, the lugs of commercial vehicle manufacturers in Europe are also tough. “The financial turmoil and the decline in users’ desire to buy have caused the sales of commercial vehicles to decline month by month in recent months. However, increasingly stringent emission standards are still advancing. This is undoubtedly a deterrent to the European auto industry.†. At the same time, some research institutions stated that the Euro VI emission standards have overemphasized the emission limits of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter, resulting in an increase in carbon dioxide emissions, which may become a fatal weakness of the Euro VI emission standards.
Excessive attention to nitrogen oxides has been criticized, but has spawned manufacturers' attention to vehicle fuel economy. It is understood that in the face of the increasingly serious greenhouse effect, countries will place carbon dioxide emissions from commercial vehicles on an important position. European heavy-duty commercial vehicle manufacturers recently said that they will jointly improve the fuel economy of heavy commercial vehicles and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, contributing to the sustainable development of the global environment. Daimler, Duff, Iveco, Mann, Scania, Volkswagen and Volvo said at the 2008 Hannover Commercial Vehicle Show in Germany that they will unite to increase the fuel economy of commercial vehicles and achieve CO2 reduction. Andreas Renschler, president of the European Automobile Industry Association’s Commercial Vehicles Division, said: “At present, road congestion, high energy prices, and global warming are becoming more and more serious. The community has already realized this problem. As a representative of the commercial vehicle industry, we want to What we do is to minimize the impact on the social environment as much as possible. By 2020, we will increase the vehicle's fuel economy and reduce fuel consumption per kilometer to 20%."
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