As a front-end indicator of the LED industry market in mainland China, the LED industry data for January-February 2014 in Taiwan continued to be optimistic. Analysts believe that due to the early Spring Festival of 2014, the pre-holiday stocking, overseas customers concentrated orders and other factors superimposed, the relevant industries in the mainland will continue to maintain a booming production and sales situation. After digesting stocks during the Spring Festival, March is expected to usher in a new wave of stocking. Under the multiple benefits, the global LED lighting market is expected to hit the 100 billion scale for the first time this year, which will also have an impact on the listed business of this year.
Taiwanese enterprises continue to have high shipments. LED companies in Taiwan are still ahead of the mainland in terms of technology and channel. Therefore, LED data in Taiwan has become the leading indicator in the mainland. In the fourth quarter of last year, the shipments of Taiwanese companies continued to rise against the high cycle, triggering the industry's expectation of the upcoming LED lighting market.
Since the beginning of this year, LED shipment data in Taiwan has continued to exceed expectations. The monthly data of listed companies in Taiwan showed that the total revenue of epitaxial chip manufacturers in February was 3.667 billion Taiwan dollars, an increase of 41.26, a year-on-year increase of 0.33, and a year-on-year increase of 30% in January-February; Packaged application revenue totaled 4.195 billion Taiwan dollars, up 24.05 year-on-year and 12.84 month-on-month. In January-February, the total year-on-year growth was 21.60. The Spring Festival holiday did not affect the sales of manufacturers, but it showed unprecedented demand.
In terms of the molecular industry, the upstream chip maker Jingdian is one of the outstanding financial data performers in Taiwan. Although the working days in February were less, its February revenue still increased by 4.95 on a quarter-on-quarter basis, a year-on-year increase of 57.48. It is pointed out that this year's LED industry has improved, and the company has clearly felt strong market demand since January. Through the performance of each product line of Jingdian in February, it can be found that the demand for LED and lighting application products is still strong. Overall, the first quarter is not a low season, orders in March and April are still strong, the company's first quarter revenue is expected to exceed expectations.
Analysts pointed out that since the chip is in the upstream of the LED industry, the market performance of the crystal power will affect the development trend of the industry. Guojin Securities (quotation, consultation) research report that LED is the most certain industry this year. March is the traditional peak season for LEDs, and the rapid growth of orders will begin to materialize. From the perspective of the entire market, there is no need to worry about demand in the first half of the year, and there is no need to worry about supply in the second half
The optimism of the chip industry data In the current situation is relatively clear, many companies have shown a eager attitude towards the high degree of prosperity. A number of LED industry upstream listed company leaders told reporters that they are expanding their production capacity as much as possible. A company that was originally in the midstream of the industry expects the company's production capacity to more than double this year, which is equivalent to one year's capacity in the industry two years ago.
The surge in downstream demand has also caused some companies to expand their production capacity in order to maintain market share. At present, Mulinsen, the leading LED chip packaging company in China, has held a distributor conference in 2014. According to the reporter, this year's order volume is about 1.4 billion yuan, compared with only 80 million yuan last year. Mulinsen's packaging capacity in 2013 was 13 billion pieces per month, and this year will reach 20 billion pieces per month.
Lin Liliang, general manager of Mulinsen Lighting, said that this year's lighting business of Mulinsen is conservatively estimated to complete 1.6 billion yuan in revenue, and the entire Mulinsen Co., Ltd. will complete 6 billion yuan in revenue. This means that the revenue of the finished lighting business will account for more than 25% of Mulinsen's total revenue this year. In 2013, this proportion only exceeded 10.
Insiders pointed out that it is not difficult to find out that the recent Taiwan industry data shows that the upstream chip performance is significantly better than the downstream application in a single month, which reflects that the downstream application has entered a new round of stocking period for the upcoming peak season, while the upstream chip will be expanded. The long production cycle affects high flexibility in a short period of time. Due to the long expansion period of the chip, it usually takes about one year, and the downstream lamp expansion cycle takes only two months. Therefore, the data of the chip industry will be more optimistic in the short term.
The expected increase of 100 billion scale In the latest LED research report, the global LED lighting product shipments will increase by 68% in 2013 compared with 2013. Among them, the growth rate of North America is expected to reach 72, the growth rate of LED lighting products in the Chinese mainland market. At the same time, with the support of the policy, the progress of LED manufacturers in the mainland market will be significantly accelerated, and a new situation may be opened in terms of industrial integration and technological progress. This means that the LED lighting market is expected to reach 100 billion in size this year.
Analysts pointed out that compared with the short-term capacity explosion of the chip industry, the downstream industry is more certain year-round. The source believes that the chip benefits from the scale effect, taking Sanan Optoelectronics as an example. Due to patent and technical issues, the company has been slow to open up the situation in overseas markets. Most of the chips used in domestic downstream faucet sunlight are still Taiwan's crystal chip, and Jingdian has successively signed patent cross-licensing with Nichia, Philips and Osram. Although Sanan Optoelectronics initially acquired a certain number of patents through the acquisition of US lumens last year, from the current situation, it still needs to work hard to open up overseas markets.
At present, the optimistic expectations for the LED downstream industry have two foundations. First, the United States requires some states to significantly improve energy efficiency standards. Secondly, Japan bans the sale of fluorescent lamps. Panasonic has proposed to stop production of fluorescent lamps in 2015, all of which will be changed to LEDs.
From the perspective of the capital market, due to the continuous recovery of industry data, the recent stock prices of Taiwan's epitaxial chip makers, Jingyuan Optoelectronics, New Century, and Yuanyuan Optoelectronics, have hit a new high for more than a year, and are engaged in packaging applications such as Yiguang, Longda and Dongbei. Hong Qi and Addison’s recent share price also hit a new high for more than a year. The above analysts said that the LED cycle in mainland China has some errors with Taiwan, but the arrival of the short-term peak season and the mainland LED companies will hold a distributor conference in March, which will be the guarantee for the second quarter results.
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