At present, the global urea market is in short supply and there is not enough output to meet the demand in April-May. The shortage of U.S. supplies pushed the price of urea in April to over $700 per ton for New Orleans ports. This price level only occurred once before the urea market in 2008. The supply of all sources of supply led to a rapid rise. The buyer’s price pressure will not be reduced by a bit before May because unsatisfied demand in April will be postponed to the next month.
The highest price for urea in the U.S. market is 1,500 tons of Egyptian supplies, up to 760 U.S. dollars, but this high price has not yet appeared in markets outside the United States. The shortage of urea in other markets outside the United States is not serious and prices are relatively low. For example, there are 60,000 tons of Indonesian large-granule urea on the weekend FOB
US$470.1 was sold, and another 25,000 tons of Russian-made small-particle urea was sold at a FOB price of US$450. However, the price increase in the U.S. market has also affected other markets. At the same time, the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts that U.S. corn planting area this year will reach 96 million acres and the amount of urea will be substantial. Now that traders are still purchasing urea for shipment to the United States in April, the rapid rise in urea prices triggered by large U.S. demand will show up in the coming weeks. A trader purchased a batch of urea in the Middle East at a FOB price of US$600 to ensure sufficient supply to the United States.
The prudence of the buyers is understandable because the price was so high that it was only once in 2008, after which the prices fell sharply. This year's spring fertilizer starts earlier and the end may be earlier than in previous years. In the U.S. market, the price of large granular urea is 200 US dollars higher than other markets, and this will not continue. Iran's large-granule urea will not be sold to the United States and some other countries. The question now is: What if Iran's supply actually exits the international urea market? At what time will the urea price reach a high level? It is estimated that a total of 25,000 tons of Iranian urea have been sold to the Latin American market since the beginning of this year, and several other batches have been exported to Africa, which will undoubtedly keep prices in the export target market low.
In the Black Sea region, there is only a small amount of urea in Yuzhninet for export in April. AFT sold a small batch of urea that was shipped at the end of April for a price of USD 480. Prior to this, trader Hamm purchased 12,000 tons at a FOB price of US$450.
The Ukrainian market has eaten 80,000 to 100,000 tons of urea in April. The CIS manufacturer had two urea production lines shut down, so the export volume was limited, and the order waiting to be fulfilled was 173,000 tons. According to the previous average export volume of 360,000 tons per month, there are only 40,000 to 50,000 tons to be exported. Because prices are now rising, manufacturers are reluctant to sell May production. Their target FOB price is $500.
In the Baltic region, early last week Ural Chemicals sold the last shipment in April, and the FOB price has risen to US$450. Exports of urea FOB to Latin America reach US$465-$466. Currently in the Baltic region, no urea is available for sale in April, either by producers or traders.
In the Middle East, the U.S. market for urea stock has brought the FOB price of large grain urea in the Middle East to US$600, which is the highest price since the third quarter of 2008. The price of urea in the Middle East is also more than US$500 for other markets, and producers have rejected the tender price of the buyer’s FOB price of US$495. Even if demand from the United States declines after April, the Thai market will have a large demand for urea in the Middle East from May to June, and India will soon start tendering in mid-April.
There are rumors in the market that India will start bidding in the middle of this month. The FOB price of China's small granular urea exported from Vietnam is between US$440 and US$445, and the price of large pellets is US$10. There is no need to rush to purchase at this price level, because the price of CIF in Southeast Asia is only 450-460 US dollars. Thailand's market is low in inventory and prices are starting to rise. The current CIF price of Thai manufacturers is around US$485. The CIF value of goods arriving in Hong Kong in April was around US$450. There are no cash sales at present. Importers believe that once the urea season arrives in mid-April, there will be a shortage of urea supply in the Thai market. At this stage, prices will increase substantially. In February, Thailand imported a total of 256,000 tons of urea. From January to February, the cumulative import volume was 312,000 tons, a year-on-year drop of 40,000 tons.
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